A number of buzzwords have popped up in recent months as a result of the COVID outbreak. From housing economics to curbside service, coronavirus, or COVID-19—the word of 2020 by my selection—has created dozens of new words and expressions as fast as its viral mutations. As of late, researchers have found that the strains of novel coronavirus that have a mutated S “spike” protein are about 10 times more infectious than the original strain that is dubbed D614 in China. This may explain why COVID-19 is spreading so quickly in Europe and the US. There is plenty of evidence in America that infections are on the rise among young people. If this is not Darwinian fitness, what is?
Darwinian fitness teaches us that adaptation can increase the fitness level of organisms, making them better suited to survive. While we are adapting to our new normal by working and schooling from home, wearing masks in public and practicing social distancing, we are also increasing our chance of survival—a long-term freedom that short-sighted people can’t fathom. Our invisible enemy—the novel coronavirus—is also adapting to the new environment inside the human body by mutation. The mutated strain is more contagious, infections can be fully asymptomatic, and from children to working age young adults, no age group is exempt from infections. The strains that survive are the fittest, if not the strongest.
Chinese people do not defy science the way some American diehards do. In a country that emphasizes more on collective wellbeing than individual free will, Chinese people followed official guidelines to stay at home and wear masks in public in the first quarter of the year. Shops and factories were closed. Restaurants canceled all dine-in services and touted for business via online ordering and home delivery. As the infections were under control and the pre-pandemic business-as-usual slowly resumed, the pent-up Chinese people were willing to splurge when lockdown came to an end. That was how the buzzword—retaliatory spending—came into being in the Chinese netsphere.
Like US local governments, Chinese local governments did not want to miss the national holiday as it is always the best time for the economy. In the US, some local governments cannot wait to reopen the economy at the outset of a partial lockdown. They aimed to reopen the economy no later than Memorial Day. So I see retaliatory spending happen both in China and in the US. I take the May Day holiday in China and Memorial Day in the US as their turning points.
Retaliatory spending is a vivid description of a consumer’s psychological behavior. If you fast for days, when you see food, you’d have a ravenous appetite. If you are unable to take a shower for weeks, when you see a bathhouse, you’d be most likely dive in and soak yourself for as long as you please. When lockdown is lifted, house-bound citizens are dying for outdoor activities to make up for reduced spending during the lockdown.
During China’s May Day holiday, the major tourist sites welcomed 50 million trips within the country in only two days during the five-day break. Strong holiday sales in China were boosted by coupons from brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce. Retaliatory spending took place mostly locally, reflecting a consumer poll in which nearly 90 percent of respondents rated dining out, shopping, and going to movies on top of their wish list in the aftermath of a lockdown. The Chinese media compared the domestic market to a belated spring warming up from a frigid winter. I thank big data and retaliatory spending for this economic recovery.
In the US, I also thank retaliatory spending, but short-sighted leadership has a lot to do with the recovery of domestic economy. As soon as the economy was reopening, American people flocked to restaurants, bars, beaches and parks. The Memorial Day holiday weekend spurred the incentives for retaliatory spending. However, I’d like to argue that some self-centered Americans have defied both science and history. Not only do they refuse to wear masks in public, they have not complied with shelter-in-place for more than 40 days. History has taught us that it was a norm centuries ago when ancient civilization in Italy required keeping ships from plague-stricken countries waiting off its port for 40 days to assure that no latent cases were abroad. Thus, the English word “quarantine” originated from “quarantena” in Italian, meaning “forty days.” The US not only did not enforce a nationwide implementation of social distancing and testing its citizens, the sporadic shelter-in-place equivalent to self-quarantine lasted less than 40 days as a result of divisive leadership. If young American workers are unfortunately hospitalized for covid, who will support our retaliatory spending in the US?
Yes, the US economy is recovering. Retail sales in America surged in May by 17.7% over April, more than double that amount that had been expected. The seemingly optimistic Wall Street stock market is rising and so is the U.S. death toll and infection cases of COVID-19. We will definitely have a long frigid winter ahead in terms of our freedom of movement. I’d better get used to curbside service now. It was a new experience for me when I ordered a pizza from a socially responsible merchant a few weeks ago. The entire process from ordering my pizza, waiting, and picking up my order was outside the pizzeria. I was on the sidewalk the whole time. Peeking through the window, I felt weird to see an empty, dark restaurant and only two people working behind the counter. While I was waiting for my pizza outside the store, I roamed around the strip mall. What used to be busy storefronts were still shut and sidewalk was empty. My favorite Korean restaurant was closed but it was getting ready for reopening. A digital touch screen monitor was installed outside for customers to order food. I wonder if this new addition to the business would outlast the pandemic.
My trip to the local library was also a new experience. The curbside pickup is ingenious. I had to arrive at a designated parking zone on a specific day according to the library’s so-called “staggering system.” Customers are divided into three groups based on their last name in alphabetical order. Each group may come to the library on a specific day of the week. Customers will phone in the library to report their arrival at the lot and wait for a call back from the librarian after their books are ready for pick up. Two big tables are numbered at the entrance of the door-closed library. Books are placed on the assigned table when a customer is notified for pick up. Voilà! This is curbside pickup in 2020.
From grocers to restaurateurs, more and more socially responsible merchants are offering curbside service. Social distancing, curbside service, mask wearing are proven to humanity that retaliatory spending with Darwinian Fitness in mind is possible. As Charles Darwin put it succinctly: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”
